Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar, Ruyu Chen published in august 2026 a revised version of their paper “Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts About the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence.” Using payroll data from ADP, they documented facts about how employment has evolved since the release of ChatGPT, with particular attention to differences by age and AI exposure.
Main facts
- They do not see widespread, economy-wide job displacement associated with AI.
- However, young workers in AI-exposed occupations are increasingly falling behind their less-exposed peers. Employment among workers ages 22–25 in highly AI-exposed occupations now stands about 19% below where it would be if it had kept pace with employment among similarly aged workers in less-exposed occupations.
- Experienced workers show no comparable gap.
- The adjustment appears to operate primarily through reduced hiring of young workers rather than increased separations (exits).
- The declines are concentrated in occupations where AI usage tends to automate human tasks. In occupations where AI is used more to complement workers, employment is flat or rising, particularly among more experienced workers.
- Employment has declined among young workers in occupations that rely heavily on codified knowledge: formal, standardized, documented knowledge that can be taught through education, textbooks, or written procedures. In contrast, employment has increased among experienced workers in occupations that rely more heavily on tacit knowledge acquired through practice, mentorship, and repeated exposure to real situations.
- The divergence for young workers persists when they exclude technology firms and computer occupations.
Photo Jordi Soldevila. Vestigi incert
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