Koula Asimakopoulou et al. from King’s College London investigated comparative optimism for infection and recovery from COVID-19, and the implications this may have on the second wave and the possible lockdown. The study found that during the first lockdown period, most respondents believed that compared to others, they were unlikely to be at risk of COVID-19.
Data were collected through an international survey (N = 6485) exploring people’s thoughts and psychosocial behaviours relating to COVID‐19. The paper reports UK data.
They found the belief that negative events surrounding risk and recovery from COVID‐19 are perceived as more likely to happen to others rather than to oneself. Researchers believe that comparative optimism may have brought out the anecdotally observed, lack of compliance with lockdown guidelines in the UK. People who believe COVID‐19 is less likely to happen to them than to others may infer that their actual risk is much smaller than that communicated in the media, and thus the strict adherence to lockdown restrictions is unnecessary in their case.
The results showed how participants overwhelmingly believed that as compared to people of their age and gender, they were somewhat or extremely unlikely to have accidentally infected people with COVID‐19 in the past and to infect others or get infected themselves in the next month. They were also comparatively optimistic, but to a lesser extent, about their likelihood of getting hospitalized due to COVID‐19, finding themselves in an ICU, being ventilated, and making a full recovery.
In contrast, participants showed comparative pessimism about COVID‐19 infections in the more distant future. As compared to the average person of their age and gender they felt likely to get infected by COVID‐19 in the next year and to develop COVID‐19‐related symptoms. The authors argued that this finding supports earlier research that shows that people who have experienced some ill health tend to unduly exaggerate their future risk of experiencing further ill health. One important difference between COVID‐19 and other risks is that controlling the pandemic was very much placed in the hands of individuals restricting their lives in the UK—as seen in the slogan urging people to ‘Stay at home’. It is reasonable that participants would reason that in the long term, staying at home would be less possible, plausible or practical. Feeling that compliance with social distancing rules cannot be maintained indefinitely may thus explain these perceptions, in line with research showing that high prevalence negative events may engender comparative pessimism.
The implication for a second lockdown is that where people's experience so far may be that they have not been ill with COVID, they are likely to be even more comparatively optimistic than they were in March. Thinking that COVID has not happened to you so far so it is unlikely to happen to you now, can be even more dangerous than it was earlier in the spring. Both comparative optimism and comparative pessimism may have important consequences for people’s psychological well‐being and their likelihood of engaging in risk behaviours or responding to further lockdown measures.
Acces article (pdf free) Comparative optimism about infection and recovery from COVID‐19; Implications for adherence with lockdown advice
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