2060 Population Odyssey: living longer, older people, less people working

 

We are living longer than ever before. But we are also having fewer children. So, over the coming decades, the proportion of retired and elderly people will increase. At the same time, the proportion of people of working age will fall.

By 2060, there will be only two workers for every person aged 65 or over. Half as many as today. Although immigration should give a helping hand, population in about half the EU Member States is expected to shrink. The EU population will only grow slightly before peaking in 2050.

Some data

• 2013: 507 million people       2060: 523 million people
• 2013: 211 million workers     2060: 202 million workers
• 2013: health care expediture 6,9% GPD       2060: 7,8% GPD 
• 2013: long term expenditures 1,6% GPD      2060: 2,7% GPD

The 2015 Ageing Report, published by the European Commission in May, sheds light on the economic, budgetary and societal challenges that policy makers will have to face in the future as a result of these trends. The report’s long-term projections provide an indication of the timing and scale of challenges that can be expected so as to inform European policy makers about the scale and timing of the challenges they must face.

photo: (*) Photosolde
________________________________________________________________________

Why projects fail?

 

The postmortem examination of failed projects reveals that long before the failure there were significant symptons or as Leon Kappelman says "EARLY WARNING SIGNS (EWSs)". Kappelmann et. al., wrote an article where they explained that the EWS were related to "people" and "process".

The six people-related EWSs are:

1. Lack of top management support
2. Weak project manager
3. No stakeholder involvement and/or participation
4. Weak commitment of project team
5. Team members requisite knowledge and/or skills
6. Subject matter experts are overscheduled

 The six processes-related EWSs are:

1. Lack of documented requirements and/or success criteria
2. No change control process
3. Ineffective schedule planning and/or management
4. Communication breakdown among stakeholders
5. Resources assigned to a higher priority project
6. No bussiness case for the project  

Acces to the article: Leon A. Kappelman, et al (2006)

For those interested in project management I would reccomend this blog:
Informatica++ /Gestión de Proyectos,  The blog came from the Universitat Oberta de Catalunya. One of the authors José Ramon Rodríguez recomended it.


Bob Landry—The LIFE Picture Collection/Getty Images. 1946. The chase: the dog is carrying a message, is trailed by British foreign office man, a Nazi, a midget, a red-haired Mata Hari and Groucho.
________________________________________________________________________________

Evaluation of industrial policy: methodological issues and policy lessons

Industrial policy, covers a multitude of policy instruments and approaches. While there has been a recent revival of interest in industrial policy around the world, systematic evidence of efficacy is relatively scarce.

This new OECD report (Evaluation of industrial policy (2014)) brings together the work of an OECD expert group that has considered recent evidence from the evaluation of industrial policy.

The report focuses on three specific policy areas, namely:

• support for R&D;
• capital market interventions (with a focus on risk capital);
• public procurement for innovation.

It also examines three areas where packages of industrial policy measures are generally applied:

• sector approaches including public-private partnerships PPP);
• policies towards clusters and business networks;
• national industrial strategies.

In many areas of industrial policy, evaluation faces particular methodological challenges. These challenges are outlined in the report, which concludes by drawing together the main policy lessons from the available evaluation evidence.

In particular the recomendations to the policy makers are:

• Make an explicit commitment to the evaluation of industrial policy
• Insist on the development of data and evaluation strategies before programmes can begin.
• Choose evaluation techniques appropriate to the programmes concerned.
• Evaluate industrial strategy using mixed methods.
• Insist on full disclosure in evaluation reports.
• Create robust governance mechanisms to ensure evaluation is objective and free of political influence.
• Develop effective mechanisms for policy learning

RELATED POST

photo: (*) Photosolde
________________________________________________________________________

Two articles on corporate governance

 

"Corporate governance is the system by which companies are directed and controlled. Boards of directors are responsible for the governance of their companies. Nonprofit governance is a political and organizational process involving multiple functions and engaging multiple stakeholders. The responsibilities of the board include setting the company’s strategic aims, providing the leadership to put them into effect, supervising the management of the business and reporting to shareholders and stakeholders on their stewardship and tu ensure the mission fullfillment and overall accountability".

Forprofit companies:
The Financial Reporting Council is the UK’s independent regulator responsible for promoting high quality corporate governance and reporting to foster investment. They promote high standards of corporate governance through the UK Corporate Governance Code.

In 2014 they have published a new version of the UK corporate governance code

Nonprofit companies:
Vic Murray, adjunct Professor in the School of Public Administration at the University of Victoria.  and Yvonne Harrison  assistant Professor in the Department of Public Administration and Policy in Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy, University at Albany, have published in 2014 Guidelines for Improving the Effectiveness of Boards of Directors of Nonprofit Organizations

Two intersting documents to read and try to learn how to improve our corporate boards. 

photo: 1958 | On the screen of a drive-in theater in Utah, Charlton Heston, as Moses in the The Ten Commandments, throws his arms wide before what appears to be a congregation of cars at prayer. Published in the December 22, 1958, issue of LIFE. 

________________________________________________________________________
_

Hospitals and market share: Is market power good or bad?

David Cutler, Professor of Applied Economics at the Department of Economics and Kennedy School of Government in Harvard University published with Fiona Scott Morton in 2013 at JAMA Hospitals, market share and consolidation. They said in their conclusion:

" A central economic question about the emerging health system is whether consolidation of large hospital institutions is beneficial or harmful. The answer is not always the same because it depends on the environment in which consolidation occurs, who is consolidating, how large each organization is in its different markets,and whether the combined entity improves quality of care.

Having policy makers be smart about how hospitals and other health care institutions are allowed to consolidate is critical to ensuring that the population is receiving the best care possible at reasonable, affordable prices".

Recently it has appeared a report done by FTI consulting that says: "Hospital mergers offer substantial benefits for patients and communities. This study provides a comprehensive review and analysis of hospital merger studies and trends that uncovers a reality rooted in research and quite different than what many people think". FTI consulting report (2014)

Two interesting papers to read this 2015 and analyse the benefits and harms of market power in the health care sector.

Reading it we probably could understand and anticipate what will happen (or happening now!) in Spain in general and in Catalonia and Barcelona in particular in the private health care sector market and the behaviour of the different actors: health care organiazations, insurances, doctor companies, and consumers.

photo: (*) Photosolde
________________________________________________________________________

merry christmas and happy new year 2015

designed by: Soldevila. disseny, comunicació i art
_________________________________________________________________________

Data: the most valuable commodity

Data is becoming a "commodity". The important point today is HOW we USE the data NOT the data itself. The data itself is like a barrel of oil: It's basically the same product regardless of the producer.

If we believe in this idea we could understand also that the current definition of "personal data" is evolving. The report published by World Economic Forum in collaboration with The Boston Consulting Group in 2013 Unlocking the value of personal data: from collection to usage (2013) explains how the world and the use of personal data are changing:

"What is considered personal data is increasingly contextual; it changes with personal preferences, new applications, context of uses, and changes in cultural and social norms. Traditionally, organizations have used a variety of techniques to de-identify data and create value for society while protecting an individual’s privacy. Such data was not subject to the same rules as the Personal Identificable Information (PII) as an individual could not be identified from it.

Today technological advances and the ability to associate data across multiple sources is shifting boundaries of what is or is not PII, including potential re-identification of previously anonymized data.

This issue is the subject of significant debate with some arguing that this means that all data is effectively personally identifiable and should be treated as such. Others urge caution, arguing that this would curtail many of the beneficialuses of anonymous data with minimal gains in privacy. A shift in approach to thinking less about the data and more about the usage could offer a way forward.

If the usage impacts an individual directly it would require different levels of governance than data which is used in an aggregated and anonymized manner.

• Related post: data is now touching everyone lifes

photo: (*) Photosolde
_________________________________________________________________